20位顶级经济学家致G20领导人的一封信：避免人道主义灾难席卷全球，不要坐等历史审判我们

To G20 leaders,

G20各成员国领导人：

Advanced countries have started now to see the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and there is worse to come for most countries. But delaying emergency measures in emerging and developing economies will lead to unimaginable health and social impacts which will come back to haunt us for decades. The G20 must act now.

COVID-19疫情已经在发达国家肆虐，而对全球大多数国家，最糟情况还远未到来。无论是发达经济体还是发展中国家，迟疑不前只会带来难以想象的健康和社会灾难，其贻害在未来几十年难以消除。G20国家必须立即行动起来。

As advanced economies struggle to cope with the spread of COVID-19, emerging and developing countries are facing an unprecedented collective threat to human life, social cohesion and economic devastation. The virus is now reaching countries with fragile health systems and weak institutions, with the potential of creating huge numbers of deaths, particularly among the 70 million globally displaced people. Massive economic losses will be incurred as countries desperately try to cope, people will migrate out of fear as the epidemic takes hold leading to social disruption, violence and security issues. Moreover, in the likely case that they fail, the virus could become endemic, producing new waves of destructive outbreaks regionally and around the world. 

当前发达经济体都难以遏制疫情的扩散，发展中国家和新兴经济体更面临百年未见之威胁，让民众生命、社会团结和经济发展悬于一线。对于那些医疗资源稀缺，治理机构贫弱的国家，疫情一旦失控将让无数生灵涂炭，遑论全球7000万流离失所的难民。一旦这些国家无法控制疫情传播，大量人口将在恐惧之下成为疫情难民，引发巨大经济损失、社会动荡和暴力行为。如果这些国家治理崩溃，COVID-19可能演变成地方流行病，在区域和全球反复爆发新的疫情。

We have a rapidly closing window to ensure that we give these countries at least a fighting chance to manage the crisis and provide some light at the end of a what could be a long tunnel. Africa, South Asia and Central and South America are still at the very beginning of what could be a long epidemic cycle. As of this writing, 43 out of 54 countries in Africa have registered cases of the virus and there has been a six-fold increase in case numbers over the last 8 days. Yemen and Syria have just joined the list.

机会窗口正在不断关闭，我们至少要给这些国家一个抵抗的机会，在对抗疫情的长夜中给他们带来些许光明。对于非洲，南亚和中南美洲的国家，这场大流行病的拉锯战才刚刚打响。本文付梓之际，非洲54国之中有43国已发现确诊病例，也门和叙利亚是最新成员，在过去短短8天，确诊数量已增长6倍之多。

Just as governments in richer countries are trying to protect their most vulnerable citizens, they have both an obligation and a self-interest in shielding vulnerable countries. The fight must be waged globally on two fronts: public health and economic policy. On the health front, we must immediately support the World Health Organisation and shore up domestic institutions managing the healthcare response, guarantee logistics and supply chains for health and other essential goods. In parallel we must immediately accelerate the global effort to find vaccines and therapeutics, manufacture them fairly across the world. 

正如富国政府正尽可能地保护本国脆弱人群，同理无论是从道义还是自身利益出发，我们都有义务出手相助那些国际社会最脆弱的成员。我们必须在全球范围内部署两条战线：公共健康和经济政策。在公共健康战线，我们必须立即支援并加强世界卫生组织和各国健康机构，保证健康用品和其他必需物资的物流和供应链安全。同时，我们要加速寻找疫苗和特效药，并在全球生产制造。

We must also provide emergency resources to countries facing devastating fiscal outlays and massive capital outflows. The economic impact on these countries will be much greater than anything experienced during the global financial crisis. With little fiscal space, high debt levels and little external capital left, their capacity to protect their populations is very limited. 

对于那些面临严重财政超支和大规模资本外流的国家，我们必须提供资源援助。这些国家面临的经济冲击要远远大于上一次全球金融危机。由于预算有限，债务高企，再加上外部资本逃离，这些国家缺乏足够的能力来保护本国国民。

First and foremost, we should ensure that the WHO has sufficient resources to continue leading the global response. The entire UN system and the associated international financial institutions, the World Bank and the IMF, will be tested in a way that they have not been since they were created in the wake of two man-made catastrophes and the Great Depression. 

当务之急，我们应保证世界卫生组织有足够的资源来领导全球对疫情的应对。众所周知，两次世界大战和大萧条之后，联合国体系和国际金融机构如世界银行和国际国币基金组织才建立起来，本次疫情将成为这些机构成立以来面临的最大挑战。

There is an immediate funding gap to be filled for fighting the epidemic. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board has requested at least $8 billion in emergency funding, including $2 billion to strengthen the WHO’s emergency and preparedness response, $0.75 billion for diagnostics, $3 billion for development, distributed manufacturing and delivery of vaccines, and $2.25 billion for therapeutic drugs to prevent and treat COVID-19. 

填补对抗疫情的资金缺口已刻不容缓。全球备灾监测委员会（Global Preparedness Monitoring Board）提出了至少80亿美元的资金援助，其中20亿美元用于加强世界卫生组织的紧急备灾应对，7.5亿美元用于诊断、30亿美元用于疫苗的研发、制造和配送，以及22.5亿美元用于预防和治疗COVID-19的药物。

The efforts to address the economic impact will, of course, require efforts of a completely different magnitude. It has taken 2trn dollars so far to try to fix the US economy – we can only imagine what it will take to fix the countries that are falling apart because of the collapse in commodity prices, tourism and remittances, and to protect those most vulnerable. The World Bank and the IMF have produced welcome quick responses, but what will be needed will be of a different order of magnitude. We need to find new and innovative ways to use the global financial muscle to back up these institutions and the countries affected.

在经济政策上，需要的资金与公共医疗不在同一量级。仅美国就已颁布了2万亿美元的经济恢复计划。大宗商品价格下跌，旅游业和汇款阻塞，波及众多国家，同时还要保护社会中最脆弱的人群，这些国家经济恢复的资金缺口更是难以想象。世界银行和货币基金组织已经宣布快速应对措施，但与缺口相比仍是杯水车薪。我们需要创新方法来调动全球金融力量，才能支持这些国际机构和受灾国家。

We, as 20 engaged healthcare professionals and economists representing our professions, are now urging you, the leaders of the G20, to urgently provide the necessary resources to reduce the losses in human life and back up those most vulnerable. The required investment is minute compared to the social and economic costs of inaction. History will judge us harshly if we do not get this right.

作为20亲历疫情的医疗领域和经济领域的代表，我们在此呼吁你们——G20集团各国领导人，迅速提供所需资源，保护最脆弱的国家和人群，减少生命损失。现在的经济牺牲与坐以待毙造成经济和社会成本相比只是九牛一毛。在这关键时刻，若不能拯救生命和全球经济，历史将严厉地审判我们。