迈克尔·莫里茨的VC十二式
作为系列文章的开篇，本文节录了著名风险投资家迈克尔·莫里茨的投资逻辑。迈克尔·莫里茨生于英国威尔士，本科毕业于牛津大学Christ Church学院，学的是历史。后前往美国沃顿商学院，获得MBA学位。与众不同的是，他从商学院毕业后，并未立即从事直接的商业活动，而是成为《时代周刊》的一名记者。从1980年代起，莫里茨与苹果公司及乔布斯保持长期关注和密切联系，撰写了大量的相关报道和文章，并成为《时代周刊》洛杉矶记者站的负责人，统领周刊对美国硅谷及科技行业的报道和跟踪。他是最早为苹果和乔布斯撰写其官方传记的人。长期的记者生涯，让迈克尔·莫里茨形成了敏锐的洞察力和独特的挖掘力，并和美国科技界和风险投资界建立了广泛的联系和人脉，得到红杉资本创始人唐·瓦伦丁的青睐。在短暂创业并套现之后，莫里茨加入红杉资本，开始了耀眼的投资生涯。他投出的项目包括Google、Yahoo!、PayPal、YouTube、eToys、Zappos等一大批知名企业。
编者认为，莫里茨是迄今硅谷最为高产的投资人。莫里茨起初学习历史，后来辗转从事风险投资，投资业绩远超那些传统的硅谷VC从业者 ─ 那些人多半是理工男，从创业家和企业高管转行做投资。这真令人啧啧称奇。由于他的骄人业绩，莫里茨于2013年获英国女王伊丽莎白二世封为大英帝国爵士。 出于敬意和景仰，编者近年广泛搜集莫里茨的投资理念和方法论，窃以为Tren Griffin编辑的《Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Michael Moritz About Venture Capital》一文最为精到。特予翻译，作为开篇之举，与各位共享。
接下来我们一起梳理作者从迈克尔·莫里茨获得的感悟：
01
“When we help organize one of these companies at the beginning, it never looks like the world’s greatest idea. I think it’s the marketing and PR department that rewrites history and tells you that it was always the world’s greatest idea. What they don’t say is that at the very beginning there was great uncertainty and a great lack of clarity.” “We just love … people who perhaps to others look unbackable. That has always been our leitmotif of doing business.”
“我们最初帮助组建这些公司的时候，它们看上去绝对不像是世界上最伟大的生意。只有市场部和公共关系部门在讲公司历史的时候才会粉饰说，这家公司从成立开始那会儿，其创意就很伟大。但是他们省略了其实在初期这些公司有很大的不确定性和迷茫”。“我们就是喜欢那些看起来不该投的人。那是我们一直奉行的投资宗旨”。
The best venture capitalists understand that success in the venture capital business is about buying mis-priced optionality. Something “not looking like the world’s greatest idea” is actually helpful since uncertainty is the friend of a wise venture capitalist. In other words, it is uncertainty that causes others to mis-price optionality. Without some elements which make the startup’s ambition seem audacious/crazy, the potential financial return is unlikely to be the 20-100X plus tape measure home run needed to make the VC fund a success. Typically it is one or three tape measure home runs that generate the necessary financial return for the venture capital fund. For this reason, the distribution of success within a venture firm’s portfolio will follow a power law.
最好的风投家知道，风险投资业务的成功在于小筹码能参与发横财的大赌局。有的创意看起来并不像牛B的事情，但这不是坏事儿，这种不确定性却是聪明风投家的好伙伴。换句话说，正是因为不确定性才让少数人能投到发横财的好机会。如果初创公司的抱负看起来不那么胆大妄为/疯狂，那么投资人的财务回报也不可能达到20-100倍或更高， VC也没法通过单个“本垒打”（明星项目）就能保障整个基金的成功。一般来说，VC基金里只有1～3个明星项目能产生大部分的回报。所以VC基金投资组合的回报遵循长尾效应。
02
“Every single time you write a check you expect, or pay depending on your inclination, for that investment to succeed.”
“每次你开出投资支票时，你都期望这个项目能成功”。
In order to harvest optionality, the venture capitalist must believe that each swing of the bat may produce a tape measure home run – even though statistically about 50% of startups will fail outright and more will be poor outcomes. Many startups will nearly crash into the ground before they soar to become a success. Of course, others just crash into the ground. But in the beginning you must expect them all to succeed.
为了大获全胜，风投家必须相信自己的每次扑腾都是个获得 “本垒打”的机会。据统计约50％的创业公司最终倒闭，不成功的更多。许多公司在他们翱翔成功前夕几乎就要撞毁在地面。当然有些公司会直接撞毁在地面。但在开始时你必须期望它们会成功。
03
“While there is danger in the venture business in getting too far away from the crowd, it can often pay to be unconventional. … Don Valentine, the founder of Sequoia Capital, told me to trust my instincts, which lets you avoid getting dragged into conventional thinking and trying to please others.”
“投一个小众市场可能很危险，但是真相往往并非如此俗套。红杉资本创始人唐·瓦伦丁告诉我应该相信自己的直觉，这能让你避免陷入传统思维或者避免一时取悦别人”。
In order to outperform any given market, it is mathematically true that you must not essentially *be* that market. In other words, a venture capitalist can’t outperform other venture capitalist if they act just like them. This may seem like common sense but you would be surprised how much herding happens anyway, since many people would rather fail conventionally than succeed unconventionally.
要想获得比同行更高的回报，你一定不要和他们站在一个高度，持有相同观念。也就是说如果所有风投家都趋同，那么不可有卓尔超群的一位。虽然大家都认可，但吃惊的是羊群效应还是经常发生，因为许多人宁愿循规蹈矩最终失败，也不愿意创新冒险获得成功。
04
“If you have been around the start of success it is far easier to recognize it again.”
“如果你曾经接近过成功之门，那么再次找到它会更容易”。
Venture capitalist Bruce Dunlevie of Benchmark Capital said to me once: “pattern recognition is an essential skill in venture capital.” While the elements of success in the venture business do not repeat themselves precisely, they often rhyme. In evaluating companies, the successful VC will often see something that reminds them of patterns they have seen before. It might be the style, chemistry or composition of the team or the nature of the business plan.
Benchmark基金的合伙人Bruce Dunlevie曾告诉我：“发觉规律是风险投资的一项基本技能。”不同企业成功的原因多种多样，但是它们有规律。在研究一家公司时，成功的VC往往能一眼看出它和以往看过公司相同的特征，譬如团队风格、默契程度、团队结构或者商业计划的本质。
Some things will be fundamentally different but other things may be familiar. While the pattern will be similar, something in what the team is doing will seem to break a rule. Part of the pattern that is being recognized is a rule breaking innovation of some kind which drives new value.
不同公司存在本质的差异，但还是有相似的地方。虽然特征上相似，但是公司团队做的事情本身不同，而这或许打破规则。你能识别的特征里，有些东西恰恰是颠覆式的创新，这种创新蕴含新的价值。
05
“There’s nothing more invigorating than being deeply involved with a small company and … everybody’s betting against us.”
“没有什么比深度参与到一家大伙都不看好的公司更爽”。
Great venture capitalists love the process of creating companies and more importantly creating customer value. Venture capital is a service business. Making others successful is the driving activity in the work. Finding vicarious joy in the success of others is essential.
伟大的风险投资家都很享受创建公司、特别是创造客户价值的过程。风投一个重服务的行当。成就被投企业是VC的动力源泉。从他人成功中获得喜悦很有必要。
06
“The very best companies are the ones where founders build the companies and stay with the companies for a very long time.”
“最好的公司是创始人建立公司后与之长期绑定”。
The most successful founders have a passion for building a business. This passion is highly correlated with a desire not to flip the business for a quick financial profit.
最成功的创始人怀揣创业的激情。这种激情是希望公司成为伟大企业的梦想，而不是将公司快速做大套现的欲望。
07
“The venture capital partnership that invests small amounts of money judiciously is almost always going to outperform the venture capital partnership that tries, to use an ugly phrase in the business, ‘to put a lot of money to work.”
“审慎地投资少量资金的VC的业绩表现，大都超出那些试图用大把钱砸出好项目的VC”。
The size of a fund at a point works against performance. Emotional errors kick in when people have more to spend than they have ideas. Even worse, they can end up investing too many times which can lead to a lack of focus. A top 5% venture capital firm may hear thousands of pitches and invest in only 8 to ten new companies each year (depending on the firm). A few outlier venture capital firms may invest in 20 new startups each year at a series A stage, but that is not the norm.
超出一定规模后，VC基金规模越大反而业绩越平凡。当人们需要花掉的钱远远超出预先规划，那在情绪上可能犯错。更糟的是，超大基金最终投资项目多而散。一家排名前5％的VC每年会收到几千个项目，但是只投资8～10个项目（取决于VC自己）。个别VC可能每年投资20家A轮融资项目，但这很少见。
08
“Five-year plans aren’t worth the ink cartridge they’re printed with.”
“做五年规划简直就是浪费纸墨”。
Great teams are able to respond to a world which changes in ways which cannot be foreseen. This is why venture capitalists spend so much on the people employed by the startup. A strong team of people means the startup itself has optionality. The ability to “steer” as conditions change is more valuable than the ability to create medium- and long-term plans.
好的团队能够应对多变的未来。这解释了为什么风险投资家如此看重公司的团队。强大的团队能给初创公司本身带来灵活性。面对市场变化及时“转向”的能力，比制定中长期规划的能力，要更有价值。
09
“It takes a tremendously long time to build a company of value. In many cases, the best venture returns don’t happen in the private phase of the company; they happen in the time that the company is public… “It takes a long time for sales to grow and it takes a long time for true value to be achieved.”
“创造公司价值通常需要花费相当长的时间。在许多情况下，最丰厚回报往往不是在一级市场上，而是在被投公司上市后。销售业绩需要很长时间增长起来，真正价值也要花费很长时间才能实现。”
“People would be staggered at the length of time that we hold investments. It’s not uncommon for us to hold investments for 10 years or more. It’s certainly not uncommon for the partners at Sequoia to own stock for 15 or 20 years.”
“人们也许在长时间持有股权过程中感到彷徨。但是对我们来说，持有公司10年或更久并不罕见。红杉的合伙人也时常持有股票长达15年甚至20年”。
Most outsiders underestimate the importance of patience in venture capital. Building great companies takes time. A few stories about relative short term payoffs from someone selling out for a big return warp the view of many people about the time required to find success in the venture business.
大多数门外汉低估了耐性对风险投资的重要性。打造伟大的公司需要时间。市场上充斥着一些短期投资获得高回报的故事，这扭曲了很多人价值观，VC其实是长期价值投资。
10
“A downturn can be a very good time to build a company. The parvenus and the pretenders are gone. The only people who want to start a company in a time like this are the ones with the greatest conviction.” … it gets rid of all the riffraff. There isn’t as much chaff in the air. There is more time to be thoughtful. You don’t spend your day reacting to all sorts of fruitless entreaties. So to some extent it is easier. It is easier to hire and find places to locate companies and in some respects also it is easier to get customers. Oddly enough in recessionary times, customers are prepared to take more risk with a young company if they believe that that company offers them a tremendous advantage that will help them become more efficient or lower their costs.”
“经济下滑周期是创业的好时机，急功近利和假装创业的人逃之夭夭，剩下仍在创业的是最有信心的那部分”。经济危机驱除了不靠谱的创业者，无聊的项目大为减少。创业者有更多的时间去思索，而不必浪费时间去回应那些无谓的需求。所以，某种程度上说经济下行时创业更容易。公司更容易找到场地和雇员，同时也更容易挖掘客户。奇怪的是，在经济衰退时期，如果公司能带给客户巨大的优势，要么提高效率要么降低成本，那么客户愿意在这个时期冒点风险为初创公司买单”。
As Howard Marks likes to say, business cycles are inevitable. The best time to be planting seeds is often when others are in a panic and depressed. Thinking counter-cyclically pays big dividends in business and not just in venture capital. People see the recent past and then extrapolate it into the future. Volatility is actually the friend of the investor with control of their emotions.
正如霍华德·马克喜欢说的，商业周期不可避免。然而，播种的最好时节通常是当其他人处于恐慌和沮丧的时候。逆周期思维在风险投资中也能产生巨大红利。人们习惯通过历史来预测未来，因此波动率是投资者控制情绪的一个指标。
11
“[Venture capital] is a business that’s always had the investment returns concentrated in very few hands.”
“风险投资的大多数回报掌握在极少数人手中”。
Path dependence is a huge element in the venture capital business. In short, early luck and skill lead to more success and more skill as a number of factors feed back on themselves in a positive way. This results in two power law distributions: (1) returns within a venture capitalist’s portfolio; and (2) relative returns of venture capital firms in the industry.
过往经验是风险投资业务的一个核心要素。简而言之，早期的运气和技能带来更多的成功和技能，因为很多指标都会积极自我反馈。这导致了两处长尾效应：（1）基金的投资组合回报（2）VC行业内各家基金的回报。
12
“I know there are millions of people around the world have worked as hard and diligently as I have and weirdly enough, like [former US President] Jimmy Carter said years and years ago, ‘life’s unfair’. I just happen to have been very fortunate.” “A chimpanzee could have been a successful Silicon Valley venture capitalist in 1986.”
“我知道世界上有无数的人和我一样努力勤奋，奇怪的是像美国前总统（吉米·卡特）多年前说的一样-----人生其实并不公平，我只是狗屎运好了一些罢了”。“在1986年的硅谷，即便一只黑猩猩都可能成为一名成功的风险投资家”。
Luck has way more to do with outcomes in life than most people care to admit. The benefits of luck compound and because successful people attract successful people. Adding to the bounty is that fact that being around other successful and skilled people makes you more skillful. If you happened to be lucky enough to be working as a venture capitalist in 1986 somewhere near Stanford you very likely were the benefit of a massive tailwind that not only make people richer but more skilled. If you were that lucky and are not humble, you have not been paying attention. Are these people more skilled too? Yes, because being lucky puts you in situations in which you acquire new skills. Luck not only feeds back on itself to create more luck, but also more skill.
尽管很多人不愿承认，但事实上人生的成败很大程度上具有运气成分。当然，好运会不断累积，因为牛人能吸引其他牛人（事情越做越大）。与成功和能干的大牛们混在一起，你也会更有本事。如果你1986年恰好在斯坦福附近做风险投资，那你好比搭上了一辆高速顺风车，不仅收获财富还增长本领。如果你如此幸运但还不够谦虚，你不会意识到这点。这些运气好的人真的更牛吗？是的，因为幸运赶上风口也让你学到新本事。幸运给人带来运气，也让人增长本领。
Tren Griffin补充说“我对风投的了解来源于很多我的很多朋友，尤其是我在Benchmark基金的朋友Bill Gurley。我写的Bill Gurley那篇文章，是我在这个“十二件事”系列中最有见地的一篇。GIgaOM 和 Pandodaily 对Bill Gurley的采访，很好地解释了VC投资“。
敬请期待！
作者：Tren Griffin
编译：傅磊（名川资本）
来源：名川资本（ID：maintrendcap）
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