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AI 对于科学/金融的影响；AI＆元宇宙

Reid Hoffman: What are some of the things – whether it’s building on the APIs, or use of APIs by scientists – what are some of the places where science will get accelerated and how? 

有哪些事情——无论是基于 API的研究，还是科学家对 API的使用——科学将在哪些方面得到加速，如何加速？

Sam Altman：So I think there’s two things happening now and then a bigger third one later. One is there are these science dedicated products, like AlphaFold. And those are adding huge amounts of value, and you’re going to be seeing this way more and way more. I think if I had time to do something else, I would be so excited to go after a bio company right now. I think you can just do amazing things there.

Anyway, there’s another thing that’s happening, which is tools that just make us all much more productive that help us think of new research directions that write a bunch of our codes so we can be twice as productive. And that impact on the net output of one engineer or scientist, I think, will be the surprising way that AI contributes to science that is outside of the obvious models. But even just seeing now what I think these tools are capable of doing, CoPilot is an example. There’s much cooler stuff than that. That will be a significant change to the way that technological development, scientific development happens. So those are the two that I think are huge now and lead to just an acceleration of progress.

But then the big thing that I think people are starting to explore is – and I hesitate to use this word because I think there’s one way it’s used, which is fine, and one that is more scary – but AI that can start to be an AI scientist and self-improve. Can we automate our own jobs, as AI developers very first, the very thing we do? Can that help us solve the really hard alignment problems that we don’t know how to solve? That, honestly, I think is how it’s going to happen.

The scary version of self-improvement (and the one from the science fiction books) is editing your own code and changing your optimization algorithm and whatever else. But there’s a less scary version of self-improvement, which is what humans do, which is if we try to go off and discover new science, we come up with explanations. We test them. We think.

Whatever process we do that is special to humans, teaching AI to do that, I’m very excited to see what that does for the total. I’m a big believer that the only real driver of human progress and economic growth over the long term is the societal structure that enables scientific progress and then scientific progress itself. And I think we’re going to make a lot more of that.

Reid Hoffman: What do you think is going to happen vis-a-vis the application of AI to these very important systems, for example, financial markets?

你认为将 AI应用于这些非常重要的系统，例如金融市场，会发生什么？

Sam Altman: I think [AI] is going to just seep in everywhere. My basic model of the next decade is that the marginal cost of intelligence and the marginal cost of energy are going to trend rapidly towards zero, surprisingly far. And those, I think, are two of the major inputs into the cost of everything else, except the cost of things we want to be expensive, the status goods, whatever.

I think you have to assume that’s going to touch almost everything because these seismic shifts that happen when the whole cost structure of society changes, which happened many times before, the temptation is always to underestimate those. So I wouldn’t make a high confidence prediction about anything that doesn’t change a lot or where that doesn’t get to be applied.

But one of the things that is important is it’s not like the thing trends all the way to zero. They just trend towards there. And so it’s like someone will still be willing to spend a huge amount of money on compute, and energy. They'll just get unimaginable amounts about that.

The thing got 10 or got 100 times cheaper than the cost of energy, 100 million times cheaper than the cost of intelligence, and I was still willing to spend 1,000 times more in today’s dollars. What happens then?

Reid Hoffman: Metaverse and AI, what do you see coming in this?

元宇宙和人工智能，你认为会发生什么？

Sam Altman: I think they are both independently cool things. It’s not totally clear to me other than how AI will impact all computing.

I would bet that the metaverse turns out, in the upside case, which I think has a reasonable chance of happening, the upside case, the metaverse turns out to be more like something on the order of the iPhone, a new container for software and a new computer interaction thing and AI turns out to be something on the order of a legitimate technological revolution. And so I think it’s more like how the metaverse is going to fit into this new world of AI than AI fit into the metaverse. But low confidence.

API开放使用的商业机会

Reid Hoffman: So one of the things I think a lot of folks here are interested in is, based on the APIs, that very large models will create, what are the real business opportunities? What are the ways to look forward? And then given the APIs will be available to multiple players, how do you create distinctive businesses on them? 

我想在座的很多人感兴趣的一件事是，基于 API，大型模型将会创造出什么巨大的商业机会？如何对未来进行展望？然后，鉴于市场有多位玩家提供API服务，你如何在 API上创造独特的商业机会？

Sam Altman: So I think so far, we've been in the realm where you can do an incredible copywriting business or you can do an education service or whatever. But I don't think we've yet seen the people go after the trillion dollar take on Google. And I think that's about to happen. Maybe it'll be successful. Maybe Google will do it themselves. But I would guess that with the quality of language models we'll see in the coming years, there will be a serious challenge to Google for the first time for a search product. And I think people are really starting to think about “How did the fundamental things change?” And that's going to be really powerful.

I think that a human level chatbot interface that actually works this time around. I think many of these trends that we all made fun of were just too early. The chatbot thing was good. It was just too early. Now it can work. And I think having new medical services that are done through that, where you get great advice or new education services, these are going to be very large companies.

I think we'll get multimodal models in not that much longer, and that'll open up new things. I think people are doing amazing work with agents that can use computers to do things for you, use programs and this idea of a language interface where you say a natural language – what you want in this kind of dialogue back and forth. You can iterate and refine it, and the computer just does it for you. You see some of this with DALL-E and CoPilot in very early ways.

But I think this is going to be a massive trend, and very large businesses will get built with this as the interface, and more generally [I think] that these very powerful models will be one of the genuine new technological platforms, which we haven't really had since mobile. And there's always an explosion of new companies right after, so that'l‘l be cool.

Audience member: I was curious, what aspects of life do you think won't be changed by AI?

我很好奇，你认为生活中的哪些方面不会被人工智能改变？

Sam Altman: All of the deep biological things. I think we will still really care about interaction with other people. We’ll still have fun, and the reward systems of our brain are still going to work the same way. We’re still going to have the same drives to create new things and compete for silly status and form families and whatever. So I think the stuff that people cared about 50,000 years ago is more likely to be the stuff that people care about 100 years from now than 100 years ago.

Reid Hoffman:  I think the term AGI is thrown around a lot. And sometimes I’ve noticed in my own discussions, the sources of confusion just come from people having different definitions of AGI. And so it can be the magic box where everyone just projects their ideas onto it. And I just want to get a sense for me, how would you define AGI, and how do you think you’ll know when we achieve it?

Sam Altman: I should’ve defined that earlier. It’s a great point. I think there’s a lot of valid definitions to this, but for me, AGI is basically the equivalent of a median human that you could hire as a coworker. And then they could do anything that you’d be happy with a remote coworker doing just behind a computer, which includes learning how to go be a doctor, learning how to go be a very competent coder.

I think one of the skills of an AGI is not any particular milestone but the meta skill of learning to figure things out and that it can go decide to get good at whatever you need. So for me, that’s AGI. And then super intelligence is when it’s smarter than all of humanity put together.

Reid Hoffman: Just what would you say in the next 20, 30 years are some of the main societal issues that will arise as AI continues to grow? And what can we do today to mitigate those issues? 

你认为在未来的20到30年里，随着人工智能的继续发展，会出现哪些主要的社会问题？以及我们今天可以做些什么来缓解这些问题？

Sam Altman: Obviously, the economic impacts are huge. And I think if it is as divergent as I think it could be for some people doing incredibly well and others not, I think society just won’t tolerate it at this time. And so figuring out when we’re going to disrupt so much of economic activity, and even if it’s not all disrupted by 20 or 30 years from now, I think it’ll be clear that it’s all going to be.

What is the new social contract? My guess is that the things that we’ll have to figure out are how we think about fairly distributing wealth, access to AGI systems, which will be the commodity of the realm, and governance, how we collectively decide what they can do, what they don’t do, things like that. And I think figuring out the answer to those questions is going to just be huge.

什么是新的社会契约？我的猜测是，我们需要弄清楚的事情是，我们如何考虑公平分配财富，使用 AGI系统，以及治理，我们如何集体决定他们能做什么，不能做什么，诸如此类的事情。并且我认为弄清楚这些问题的答案将会是非常重要的。

I’m optimistic that people will figure out how to spend their time and be very fulfilled. I think people worry about that in a little bit of a silly way. I’m sure what people do will be very different, but we always solve this problem. But I do think the concept of wealth and access and governance, those are all going to change, and how we address those will be huge.

Audience member:  So where do you think the line is between these tools to allow a creator to be more productive, and artificial creativity and sequential creativity itself?

所以你认为这些让创造者变得更有生产力的工具，和人工创造力和连续创造力之间的界限在哪里？

Sam Altman:  And I think we’re seeing this now that as tools for creatives, that is going to be the great application of AI in the short term. People love it. It’s really helpful. And I think it is, at least in what we’re seeing so far, not replacing. It is mostly enhancing. It’s replacing in some cases, but for the majority of the kind of work that people in these fields want to be doing, it’s enhancing. And I think we’ll see that trend continue for a long time. Eventually, it probably is just like we look out 100 years, it can do the whole creative job.

I think it’s interesting that if you ask people 10 years ago about how AI was going to have an impact, with a lot of confidence from most people, you would’ve heard, first, it’s going to come for the blue collar jobs working in the factories, truck drivers, whatever. Then it will come for the low skill white collar jobs. Then the very high skill, really high IQ white collar jobs, like a programmer or whatever. And then very last of all and maybe never, it’s going to take the creative jobs. And it’s going exactly the other direction.

There’s an interesting reminder in here generally about how hard predictions are, but more specifically about we’re not always very aware, maybe even ourselves, of what skills are hard and easy, what uses most of our brain and doesn’t or how difficult bodies are to control or make or whatever.

Sam Altman:  I think no one knows we’re sitting on this precipice of AI. And people are like, “It’s either going to be really great or really terrible.” You got to plan for the worst. It’s not a strategy to say it’s all going to be okay, but you may as well emotionally feel like we’re going to get to the great future and work as hard as you can to get there and play for it rather than act from this place of fear and despair all the time.

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