雷达里奥最新观点：对中国资本市场最近动态的理解

译文：

中国最近的政策举措包括了：1）对滴滴的上市和数据使用控制，2）中国的教育公司需要转变为非盈利企业。这让人们对中国的资本主义和资本市场产生了很多怀疑，因此我想帮助大家澄清到底发生了什么。

我知道最近的政策和行动让那些不了解情况的人感到困惑。自从我36年前开始访问中国以来，我发现大多数与政策制定者没有直接接触、没有详细了解政策变化模式的西方观察家往往不相信中国共产党利用资本市场促进发展的做法是真实的。他们把最近两次这样的举动解释为领导人表现出了真正的反资本主义倾向，尽管过去40年来的趋势显然是发展有资本市场的市场经济，企业家和资本家变得富有。结果，他们错过了中国的快速发展，而且可能将来还会继续错过。在目前这种情况下，政策制定者向滴滴发出信号，表示继续上市可能不是最好的选择。们希望处理数据隐私问题，这是可以理解的。就教育辅导公司而言，他们希望减少教育不平等现象，减轻那些迫切希望自己的孩子获得这些服务但无法通过广泛提供这些服务而负担得起的人的经济负担。他们认为，即使股东们不喜欢，这些事情对国家来说还是更好的。

我记得有许多类似的误解。例如，我记得中国散户投资者泡沫破裂如何导致政府购买股票，然后有一段时间，政府试图控制住资本市场。我还记得，2015-2016年，中国人民银行扩大了人民币汇率区间，导致人民币汇率暴跌，这导致许多投资者将这些事态发展视为政策制定者放弃发展资本市场的证据。一些持怀疑态度的投资者将这些举措视为不适当的反自由市场干预，尽管同样的举措在许多资本主义市场发生过多次。美国和其他发达市场的财政和货币政策干预让中国政府在其市场的干预行动相形见绌。通过这些举动，中国决策者成功地管理了可能出现的后果并实现了他们的目标。他们的行动方向从未改变。它一直支持资本市场的快速稳定发展、创业精神以及对外国投资者的投资开放。因此，我鼓励大家关注趋势，不要误解和过度关注波动。

要了解发生了什么，你需要了解中国是一个国家资本主义制度，这意味着国家经营资本主义是为了大多数人的利益，决策者不会让资本市场和富有资本家的敏感性阻碍他们做他们认为对中国人民最有益的事情。相反，资本市场中的人和资本家必须了解他们在金融体系中的从属地位，否则他们将承受自己错误的后果。例如，他们不需要把拥有财富误认为拥有决定事情发展的权力。

你还需要了解，在这个快速发展的资本市场环境中，中国监管机构正在制定适当的监管措施，因此，当监管措施变化迅速且不明确时，这会导致此类混乱，可能会被误解为反资本主义的举措。

此外，你需要了解全球地缘政治环境的变化会导致一些变化。你可以从美国政府的政策转变中看到这一点，比如a）改变中国公司在美国上市的政策，b）威胁禁止美国养老基金在中国投资。

假设将来会发生这样的事情，请不要将这些波动误解为趋势的变化，也不要期望中国的国营资本主义与西方资本主义一模一样。

话虽如此，但我确实认为，中国决策者没有更清楚地公开表达其行动背后的理由。

至于投资，在我看来，美国和中国的体系和市场既有机会也有风险，而且很可能相互竞争，实现多元化。因此，它们都应被视为个人投资组合的重要组成部分。我建议你们不要将这些举动误解为过去几十年来存在的趋势的逆转，让这些举动吓跑你们。

原文：

Recent Chinese policy moves related to 1)DiDi’s listing and controls on its data usage and 2) China’s education companies being converted into non-profits have createda lot of doubt about capitalism and capital markets in China, so I’d like to help clarify what’s going on there.

I understand that it’s confusing to people who are not close towhat’shappening. Since I started goingto China 36 years ago, I have found that most Western observers who do not havedirect contact with policy makers’ and don’t follow in detail the patterns of the changes have tended to not believe that the Chinese Communist Party’s usage of capital markets to fosterdevelopment is real. They interpret moves like these two recent ones as the CommunistParty leaders showing their true anti-capitalist stripes even though the trend over the last 40 years has clearly been so strongly towarddeveloping a market economy with capital markets, with entrepreneurs and capitalists becoming rich. As a result, they’vemissed out on what’sgoing on in China and probably will continue to miss out. In this case the policymakers signaled to DiDi that it might not be best to go ahead with the listing andthey understandably want to deal with the data privacy issue. In the case of the educational tutoring companies they wantto reduce the educational inequality and the financial burden on those who aredesperate to have their children have these services but can’t afford them bymaking them broadly available. They believe that these things are better forthe country even if the shareholders don’t like it.

I remember a number of such analogous misinterpretations.For example, I remember how the Chinese retail investor bubble bursting led togovernment stock buying and then the government trying to manipulate the marketfor a while. Also I remember the Chinese currency plunge in 2015-16 resulting fromthe PBoC widening the band and how that led to many investors pointing to thesedevelopments as evidence that policy makers were turning away from developingcapital markets. Some skeptical investors looked at these moves asinappropriate anti-free market interventions even though these same moveshappened many times in many capitalist markets and even though the fiscal and monetarypolicy interventions in the U.S. and other developed markets dwarf the Chinesegovernment interventions in its markets. Through it all Chinese policy makerssuccessfully managed the fallout and pursued their goals; i.e, the directionof their actions never changed. It has been in support of a fast and steadydevelopment of capital markets, entrepreneurship, and openness to investment toforeign investors. So I encourage you to look at the trends and not misunderstand and over-focus on thewiggles.

To understand what’s going on you need to understand that China isa state capitalist system which means that the state runs capitalism to servethe interests of most people and that policy makers won’t let the sensitivitiesof those in the capital markets and rich capitalists stand in the way of doingwhat they believe is best for the most people of the country. Rather, those inthe capital markets and capitalists have to understand their subordinate placesin the system or they will suffer the consequences of their mistakes. For example,they need to not mistake their having riches for having power for determininghow things will go.

You also need to understand that in this rapidly developing capitalmarkets environment Chinese regulators are figuring out appropriate regulationsso, when they are changing fast and aren’t clear, that causes these sorts ofconfusions, which can be misconstrued to be anti-capitalist moves.

Also, you need to understand that the global geopolitical environment changing leads to some changes. You can see that reflected in the U.S.governments’ policy shifts such as a) changing its policies about Chinese companies’ listings in the United States and b) threatsto prohibit American pension funds from investing in China.

Assume such things will happen in the future and investaccordingly. But don’t misinterpretthese wiggles as changes in trends,and don’texpect this Chinese state-run capitalism to be exactly like Western capitalism.

Having said that, I do think that it is unfortunate that Chinesepolicy makers don’t publicly communicate the reasoning behind their moves more clearly.

As for investing, as I see it the American and Chinese systems andmarkets both have opportunities and risks and are likely to compete with eachother and diversify each other. Hence they both should be considered asimportant parts of one’s portfolio. Iurge you to not misinterpret these sorts of moves as reversals of the trendsthat have existed for the last several decades and let that scare you away.

作者：雷·达里奥

来源：少小离家老大回（ID：weibijiben）