“一切皆有可能” 和 究竟你看不看得见

英国有位名叫丹宁的法官，曾经在一份判决书中这样讲过：

“Few things are less certainly predictable than human behaviour and if one is asked whether in any given situation a human being may behave idiotically, irrationally, or even criminally, the answer must always be that that is a possibility, for every society has its proportion of idiots and criminals. It cannot be said that you cannot foresee the possibility that people will do stupid or criminal acts, because people are constantly doing stupid or criminal acts. But the question is not what is foreseeable merely as a possibility but what would the reasonable man actually foresee if he thought about it...”

简而言之：“一切皆有可能”，但是在判断一件事情是否会发生的时候，不能只看“可能性”。相比于是否可能，我们更应该关心哪些事情（理性的）我们真的能够预见和遇见。

比如，如果讲尽“可能性”，它会让你不要出门，因为可能会被车撞；它会让你不要吃饭，因为可能会被噎死；它还会让你不要见人，因为你不知道对面的人有什么病。

而在“问题”或是“官司”出现以前，我们的行事方式显然是不同的：我们会有“可行性”分析，会有“风险”预估，还会计算“预期收益”，最后还会有临门一脚，皆大欢喜！ 

所有的这些，都其实是在试图解释哪些事情尽管存在可能，但或许并不会出现。

所以，尽管大胆地去分析可能性，这是律师的工作。但同时也要冷静下来，多想想，究竟你看不看得见？

“新花留念”