其他
TED英语演讲视频：为什么我们总是会忽略掉一些很明显的风险
Michele Wucker督促我们，要正视生活中的“灰犀牛”事件——那些极有可能发生、极度明显的、却被我们忽视的危险。只有我们更愿意认识到身边的问题，并且做出计划去解决，才能更好地承受风险！
Michele Wucker是一名作者和策略家，她创造了“灰犀牛”一词，以隐喻明显的风险，但却轻易会被我们忽略掉。
演讲者：Michele Wucker
演说题目：为什么我们总是会忽略掉一些很明显的风险https://v.qq.com/txp/iframe/player.html?width=500&height=375&auto=0&vid=a3020umtdzo
Don't be so sure. We are all much more likely than any of us would like to admit to miss what's right in front of our eyes. And in fact, we're sometimes most likely to turn away from things precisely because of the threat that they represent to us, in business, life and the world. 不要太确定你的答案。我们比那些肯承认自己会错过的人，更有可能错过那些在眼前发生的事情。而且就事实上来说，有时我们更有可能逃避事情的原因，正是来自这些事情给我们的，在事业方面，生活方面，乃至世界方面的风险。
So, after 2006, when real estate prices peaked, more and more and more respected leaders and institutions started to sound the alarm bells about risky lending and dangerous market bubbles. 所以，2006年以后，当房地产价格达到顶峰的时候，越来越多有名望的领导人和机构开始敲响风险贷款和危险市场泡沫的警钟。
As you know, in 2008 it all came tumbling down. Banks collapsed, global stock markets lost nearly half their value, millions and millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure. And at the bottom, nearly one in 10 Americans was out of work. 如各位所知，2008年一切都轰然倒塌。银行倒闭，全世界的股票市场丢失了接近一半的价值，数百万人失去他们作为抵押的家园。而在社会基层，将近十分之一的美国人失业了。
A total surprise. Except it wasn't always such a surprise. For example, my Manhattan apartment nearly doubled in value in less than four years. I saw the writing on the wall and I sold it. 一场彻头彻尾的惊喜。只是它不总是一个惊喜。比如说，我在曼哈顿的公寓在不到四年的时间里价值几乎翻了一倍。我获得了一些信息，于是我将它出售了。
but we could all tell that the thing coming at us was as dangerous, visible and predictable as a giant gray rhino charging right at us. 但是我们可以说这个即将到来的事情，和一只向我们急速冲来的巨型灰犀牛一样的危险，可见，可预判。
And this dangerous dynamic masks another problem: that most of the problems that we're facing are so probable and obvious, they're things that we can see, but we still don't do anything about. 这个危险的情况还掩盖了另一个问题：那就是我们所面对的困难都极有可能发生且极度明显，它们是我们所能看见的，但是我们依然不采取任何措施。
Now, to be sure, China and the US have very, very different systems of government, which affects what they're able to do or not. And many of the root causes for their economic problems are totally different. But it's no secret that both countries have problems with debt, with inequality and with economic productivity. 很明显，中国和美国有着差异很大的政府系统，这影响着他们的能力范围，并且两个国家的经济问题根源也完全不同。虽说如此，两国都存在问题已不是秘密，例如债务，不平等和经济生产力。
The auto companies that put safety first and the ones that don't bother to recall their shoddy cars until after people die. The grandparents who, in preparing for the inevitable -- the ones who have the eulogy written, the menu for the funeral lunch. 那些把安全放在第一位的汽车公司，和一些从不考虑召回他们的劣质汽车的公司，直到有人丧命。那些为不可避免的离世而做准备的祖父母——那些已经将写好悼词和葬礼午餐菜单的，
If you think that someone around you is going to help pick you up when you fall, you're much more likely to see a danger as being smaller. And that allows us to take good chances, not just the bad ones. 如果你认为在你遇到困难的时候，你身边的人会帮助你，那么你极有可能会忽视一些危险。那么这就使我们能够 把握好机会，而不是坏的。
For example, like risking criticism when you talk about the danger that nobody wants you to talk about. Or taking the opportunities that are kind of scary, so in their own way are gray rhinos. 比如对风险的评判，当你谈到没有人愿意跟你聊的风险或者把握住有一点吓人的机会。那么对于他们而言，这是经常被提示却未被重视的大概率风险，即“灰犀牛”。
So the US has a very individualist culture -- go it alone. And paradoxically, this makes many Americans much less open to change and taking good risks. In China, by contrast, people believe that the government is going to keep problems from happening, which might not always be what happens, but people believe it. 在美国就有一种个人主义的文化——独自完成。矛盾的是，这使得很多美国人更不敢去改变，并且承担有回报的风险。在中国，与之相反，人民相信政府会把问题在根源解决，其实事实上并不总如此，但是人民选择相信。
They believe they can rely on their families, so that makes them more likely to take certain risks. Like buying Beijing real estate, or like being more open about the fact that they need to change direction, and in fact, the pace of change in China is absolutely amazing. 他们相信他们可以依靠他们的家庭，这样让他们更有能力承担相应的风险，像是在北京买房，或者在面对需要改变目标或方向时更加从容，并且事实上，中国改变的速度是惊人的。
We pay attention to what we want to see, what we like, what we agree with. But we have the opportunity and the ability to correct those blind spots. I spend a lot of time talking with people of all walks of life about the gray rhinos in their life and their attitudes. 我们会注意想看到的，喜欢以及认同的事情。但是我们有能力和机会去矫正那些盲点。我花了很多时间和各行各业的人交流关于他们人生中的“灰犀牛” 和他们对此的态度。
And you might think that the people who are more afraid of risk, who are more sensitive to them, would be the ones who would be less open to change. But the opposite is actually true. 你可能会认为那些更加害怕去冒险的人，那些对事情更敏感的人，会更难接受变动。但是事实恰恰相反。
I've found that the people who are wiling to recognize the problems around them and make plans are the ones who are able to tolerate more risk, good risk, and deal with the bad risk. And it's because as we seek information, we increase our power to do something about the things that we're afraid of. 我发现那些更愿意认识到他们身边的问题，并且做出计划的人，才是更能够承受风险，好的风险，并解决坏风险的人。这是因为我们在寻找信息时，我们会提高自己解决那些自己害怕的事情的能力。
Think of climate change, it can feel so big, that not a single one of us could make a difference. 考虑到气候变化的时候，它是一件如此大的事情，并不是我们中的任何一人可以独自解决的。
So some people go about life denying it. Other people blame everyone except themselves. Like my friend who says he's not ever going to give up his SUV until they stop building coal plants in China. 因此，有些人开始怀疑人生。其他人开始责怪除他们自己以外的所有人。就像我朋友曾经说的，他永远不会放弃他的SUV，除非他们停止在中国挖油田。
But we have an opportunity to change. No two of us are the same. Every single one of us has the opportunity to change our attitudes, our own and those of people around us. 但是我们有机会去改变。没有任何两个人是一样的。我们每一个人都有机会去改变我们的态度，我们自己和身边人的态度。
"Well, of course we should deal with obvious problems, but if you don't see what's in front of you, you're either dumb or ignorant." That's what they say, and I could not disagree more. “我们当然需要解决那些问题，但是如果你看不见你面前的东西，那你要么是愚昧，要么是无知。” 这就是他们的说辞，而我非常不赞同。
If you don't see what's in front of you, you're not dumb, you're not ignorant, you're human. And once we all recognize that shared vulnerability, that gives us the power to open our eyes, to see what's in front of us and to act before we get trampled. 如果你看不见迫在眉睫的事务，你并不是愚昧，也不是无知，你只是个普通的人类。只要我们发现共有的脆弱，会给我们勇气去睁开眼睛去看见眼前的事物，并在被践踏前及时做出反应。
《西部世界》1-2季中英视频资源免费领（视频+剧本+追剧笔记）
【141个英文视频合集】口语听力必备资源
260篇双语阅读美文大合集，送给你~
40篇经典BBC纪录片合集，收藏~
20本这一生一定要读的英文小说~
303篇Ted英文演讲视频集合，收藏~