其他
TED英文演讲：世界变得更好还是更糟了？
世界变得更好还是更糟了？数字会告诉我们答案。通过对凶杀率，战争，贫穷，污染及其他数据的分析，心理学家Steven Pinker发现，我们在这些方面做得比30年前都要好。但进步并非理所当然，也不意味着对任何时候的每个人都变得更好。
Pinker指出，进步是解决问题的过程，我们永远不会拥有完美的世界，寻找完美的世界是危险的。但如果将知识用于提升人类福祉，我们获取更美好事物的能力就是无限的。
演讲者：Steven Pinker
https://v.qq.com/txp/iframe/player.html?width=500&height=375&auto=0&vid=q3052h61h2v
and left many people longing for earlier decades, when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal.这使得很多人不禁怀念几十年前的日子，那时世界看来更安全，清净和平等。
But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition in the 21st century? As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out, "Nothing is more responsible for the good old days than a bad memory."但这是理解 21 世纪人类生存状况的合理方式吗？就如富兰克林· 皮尔斯· 亚当斯指出的那样：“怀念往昔美好时光的人的记忆一定糟透了。“
You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline if you compare bleeding headlines of the present with rose-tinted images of the past. What does the trajectory of the world look like when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick?如果你拿现在的新闻头条跟过去玫瑰色的图片相对比，你就总会以为自己正面临着世风日下的局面。当我们用恒定的尺度来衡量幸福感时，世界的变化轨迹会是什么样呢？
Let's compare the most recent data on the present with the same measures 30 years ago. Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand, had seven percent of their citizens in poverty and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter and four million tons of sulfur dioxide. 让我们用同样的方法来比较最新的数据和 30 年前的数据。去年，美国每 10 万人中有 5.3 人死于凶杀， 7%的贫困人口，排放了 2100 万吨的微粒物质，以及 400 万吨的二氧化硫。
What about the world as a whole? Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars, 60 autocracies, 10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons. But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars, 85 autocracies, 37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons. True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe, with 238 deaths, but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.那么世界整体情况如何？去年，全球共有 12 场战争， 60 个独裁政权， 10% 的极端贫穷人口以及超过 1 万件核武器。而 30 年前，一共有 23 场战争， 85 个独裁政权， 37 %的全球人口极度贫困以及超过 6 万件核武器。的确，去年是西欧恐怖主义十分猖獗的一年，共造成 238 人死亡，但 1988 年更糟，有 440 人死亡。
What's going on? Was 1988 a particularly bad year? Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles, gets better over time? Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress? To do so is to court a certain amount of derision, because I have found that intellectuals hate progress.这是怎么回事？1988 年是尤其糟糕的一年吗？或者，这是世界进步的迹象，在挣扎中，越变越好？我们是否可以援引公认的过时了进步观念？这样做会招来一些嘲笑，因为我发现知识分子憎恨进步。
And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress.自称进步的知识分子真的讨厌进步。
Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you. Most academics and pundits would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it. It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class. 请注意，我并不是说他们讨厌进步的成果。大多数学者和专家做手术时还是会选择用麻醉，而非什么都不用。让这些喋喋不休的人不满的，是进步的观点。
Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist. A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds than the one we have today. But all of this is irrelevant, because the question of whether progress has taken place is not a matter of faith or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full. It's a testable hypothesis. 好吧，潘格劳斯教授碰巧是个悲观主义者。一个真正的乐观主义者相信存在着比我们今天拥有的更好的世界。但所有这些都无关紧要，因为进步是否发生与信念无关，也不取决于是否拥有乐观气质，或是看到了半杯水（而不是半个空杯子）。而是一个可检验的假设。
Let's go to the data, beginning with the most precious thing of all, life. For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30. Today, worldwide, it is more than 70, and in the developed parts of the world, more than 80. 让我们看看数据。从最珍贵的东西开始，生命。在人类历史长河的大部分时期中，预期寿命为 30 岁上下。今天，全球平均寿命超过了70岁，在发达国家，则超过80岁。
Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way. Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely to be killed in a car crash, 88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk, 99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash, 95 percent less likely to be killed on the job, 上个世纪以来，我们死于交通事故的概率降低了 96 %。在人行道上被撞倒的概率降低了88 %。飞机事故死亡率下降了 99 %。因公殉职的概率也降低了 95 %。
Before the 17th century, no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write. Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy by the middle of the 20th century, and the rest of the world is catching up. 17 世纪以前，不到 15 %的欧洲人能读会写。欧洲和美国在 20 世纪中叶就消灭了文盲，世界其他地方也在陆续跟上。
Do all of these gains in health, wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure make us any happier? The answer is yes. In 86 percent of the world's countries, happiness has increased in recent decades.在健康、财富、安全、知识和休闲方面的这些进步让我们更加幸福了吗？答案是肯定的。全球 86 %的国家中，幸福指数在最近几十年来都在增长。
Well, I hope to have convinced you that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism, but is a fact of human history, indeed the greatest fact in human history. And how has this fact been covered in the news?好了，我希望我已经说服你们进步无关信念或乐观，而是人类历史的事实，确实是人类历史上最伟大的事实。而这些事实是如何被新闻媒体报道的呢？
A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier, wealthier, wiser, safer and happier, the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer.新闻故事中积极和消极的情绪词汇表已证明，在过去几十年里人类变得更健康，更富有，更聪明，更安全，更快乐。《纽约时报》的措辞却变得越来越阴郁，全球的广播节目的腔调也变得越来越阴沉。
Why don't people appreciate progress? Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology. We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the "availability heuristic." 为什么人们不感激这些进步？部分答案来自于我们的认知心理学。我们用一个名为“可得性启发”的心理捷径来估计危险。
News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen. You never see a journalist who says, "I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years," or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists. 新闻是报道那些正在发生的事，而不是没有发生的事。你从没见过一个记者说，“我正在一个40年来局势都很稳定的国家直播”，或者在一个从来没有被恐怖分子袭击的城市直播。
Let me address some questions about progress that no doubt have occurred to many of you. First, isn't it good to be pessimistic to safeguard against complacency, to rake the muck, to speak truth to power? Well, not exactly. It's good to be accurate. 让我提出几个关于进步的问题，豪无疑问这些进步在你们很多人身上都发生过。首先，成为一个悲观主义者，可以防范自满、清清除糟粕，向当权者说实话，这有什么不好吗？其实，这样未必好。能做到精确是很好的。
The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism. If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform, a natural response is to seek to smash the machine, drain the swamp, burn the empire to the ground, on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes is bound to be better than what we have now.轻率的悲观主义的另一个危险是激进主义。如果我们的机构都失败了，改革的希望也破灭了，自然的反应就是砸烂机器，抽干沼泽，把帝国烧成灰烬，抱着灰烬中无论长出什么都要好于当下的幻想。
Well, if there is such a thing as progress, what causes it? Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher. It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice. 那么，如果真的有进步这个东西，是什么导致了进步呢？进步并不是某种神秘力量或辩证法，可以将我们推向更高的境界。它不是一条屈服于正义的神秘弧线。
Finally, does the Enlightenment go against human nature? This is an acute question for me, because I'm a prominent advocate of the existence of human nature, with all its shortcomings and perversities. In my book "The Blank Slate," I argued that the human prospect is more tragic than utopian and that we are not stardust, we are not golden and there's no way we are getting back to the garden.最后一点，启蒙运动是否违背了人类的本性？这对我来说是个尖锐的问题，因为我是人类本性天然存在这一观点的主要倡导者，尽管其中存在许多的缺点和不足。在我的书《白板》中，我认为人类的前景比乌托邦更悲惨，我们不是星尘，我们不是金色的，我们不可能回到伊甸园。
But my worldview has lightened up in the 15 years since "The Blank Slate" was published. My acquaintance with the statistics of human progress, starting with violence but now encompassing every other aspect of our well-being, has fortified my belief that in understanding our tribulations and woes, human nature is the problem, but human nature, channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions, is also the solution.但是我的世界观随着 15 年前《白板》的出版改变了。我对人类进步的统计数据的接触——从暴力开始，到现在涵盖了我们幸福的每一个方面——强化了我的信念，即我们的困难和困境，人性是主要的问题，但是人性，在启蒙运动的规范和制度引导下，也可以是解决方案。
Admittedly, it's not easy to replicate my own data-driven epiphany with humanity at large. Some intellectuals have responded with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now," saying first how dare he claim that intellectuals hate progress, and second, how dare he claim that there has been progress.不可否认，让人类普遍复制我通过数据得到的洞察并不容易。有些学者愤怒地反击我的书《当下的启蒙》说：首先，他怎么敢宣称知识分子痛恨进步，第二，他怎么敢宣称世界已经取得了进步。
With others, the idea of progress just leaves them cold. Saving the lives of billions, eradicating disease, feeding the hungry, teaching kids to read? Boring.和其他人一样，进步的概念对他们毫无意义。拯救数十亿人的生命，消灭疾病，养活饥民，教孩子识字？太无聊了。
At the same time, the most common response I have received from readers is gratitude, gratitude for changing their view of the world from a numb and helpless fatalism to something more constructive, even heroic.同时，我得到的最常见的反馈是读者的感谢，为改变了他们对世界的看法而感激，从麻木和无助的宿命论变得更具建设性，甚至更英勇。
I believe that the ideals of the Enlightenment can be cast a stirring narrative, and I hope that people with greater artistic flare and rhetorical power than I can tell it better and spread it further. It goes something like this.我相信启蒙运动的理想可以是一种激动人心的叙述。我希望那些比我拥有更丰富的艺术灵感和修辞力量的人，能够把这个故事讲述得更好，并传播得更远。听起来就像这样：
We are born into a pitiless universe, facing steep odds against life-enabling order and in constant jeopardy of falling apart. We were shaped by a process that is ruthlessly competitive. We are made from crooked timber, vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness and at times astounding stupidity.我们生于无情的宇宙，面对着维持生命秩序的巨大挑战，并不断陷入分裂的危险之中。我们成长于残酷的竞争过程。我们是弯木头做的，容易幻想，以自我为中心，有时愚蠢到令人发指。
Yet human nature has also been blessed with resources that open a space for a kind of redemption. We are endowed with the power to combine ideas recursively, to have thoughts about our thoughts. We have an instinct for language, allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience. 然而，人类本性也被赋予了资源，为一种救赎打开了空间。我们被赋予了以递归的方式组合思想的力量，能够对个人的想法进行自省。我们有语言的本能，让我们可以分享智慧和经验成果。
As the spiral of recursive improvement gathers momentum, we eke out victories against the forces that grind us down, not least the darker parts of our own nature. We penetrate the mysteries of the cosmos, including life and mind. We live longer, suffer less, learn more, get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures and rich experiences. 随着递归改进的螺旋上升的势头不断增强，我们战胜了让我们沮丧的力量，尤其是本性中较黑暗的部分。我们深入宇宙的奥秘，包括生命和心灵。我们活得更久，遭遇更少，学得更多，变得更聪明，享受更多的小乐趣以及更丰富的体验。
We will never have a perfect world, and it would be dangerous to seek one. But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing. This heroic story is not just another myth. 我们永远不会拥有完美的世界，寻找完美世界的过程危机重重。如果我们继续将知识用于人类福祉，就会源源不断的获得更美好的东西。这个英雄故事不是另一个神话。
And this story belongs not to any tribe but to all of humanity, to any sentient creature with the power of reason and the urge to persist in its being, for it requires only the convictions that life is better than death, health is better than sickness, abundance is better than want, freedom is better than coercion, happiness is better than suffering and knowledge is better than ignorance and superstition.这个故事不属于任何一个部落，而属于全人类，属于任何拥有离职和情感，以及维系自己生命的欲望的生物。因为它只需要相信活着好过死亡，健康好过疾病，富足好于渴求，自由好于强迫，幸福好于痛苦，知识胜于无知和迷信。
Thank you.谢谢。
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