查看原文
其他

突然!戴旭在华为的震撼演讲曝出(好文,强烈推荐)

文琳资讯 2024-04-13

本文为戴旭在华为某公司的讲座:原文有删减。

文章来源:戴旭观点(ID:daixu0011


引言:
建议任总给特总统颁发一枚荣誉勋章



169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years



从北京过来,一路上都是雪。正值华为多事之冬,来跟大家交流。我知道华为的朋友们现在都很严肃认真。我也是如此。到华为来对于我也是一种战略性的实战调研。马上就春节了,先给大家拜个早年!祝福华为冬尽春来,繁花似锦。是祝福也是坚信。一定会如此,否极泰来。


自古不能谋全局者不能谋一域,不能谋万世者不能谋一时。看华为事件,我们要有这样的大视野。


年前中兴事件发生的时候,我应邀给中兴公司做了一天的演讲,半天解析中兴事件发生的时代背景,半天给中兴支招。其实就是半天讲认识论,半天讲方法论。怎么看,怎么办。什么事情都是这样,先要把它看透,然后找出对付它的办法。否则,一切研究都没有意义。


华为现在是世界的焦点,因为你们弄了个5G领先,一不小心,震惊了世界。特总统在这个世界上横冲直撞,但是,他居然害怕华为。这个事件的意义非常大,有多大?看看一百年前就知道了。

1918年,第一次世界大战刚结束。那时各国谈的是世界大战,是革命。2018年的今天,是美国率领几乎整个西方世界围攻华为,这也是一场世纪性的“世界大战”。换一个角度看,这不是华为一家单挑整个西方世界吗?这是华为的光荣,是华为强大的证明。试问世界政治、经济和科技发展史上,有哪个公司享受过这样的荣誉吗?这个荣誉是特总统先生送给你们的。他给华为做了免费广告。百年来美国都是以世界老大的身份在世界上出现的,谁也没有怕过,但他现在居然害怕华为了。这宣传效果,怎么评价都不过分。


所以,我建议任总给特总统颁发一枚荣誉勋章,以表彰他对提升华为国际声誉做出的巨大贡献。

特总统为什么把5G定性为
 21世纪的新军备竞赛?


5G是什么?


特总统政府认为,世界正在进行一场新的军备竞赛。虽然这是一场涉及技术,而非常规武器的竞赛,但对美国的国家安全构成同样大的威胁。在一个由计算机网络控制着最强有力武器(除核武器以外)的时代,任何主导5G技术的国家,都将在本世纪的大部分时间拥有经济、情报和军事上的优势。


美国是互联网和全球移动通信的发明国和长期的技术垄断国,它们对5G的理解是最到位的。我没有想到它们是以“新军备竞赛”来定性5G,并把华为的在这个领域的科技优势上升到美国国家安全的高度来看。



感觉上,一百年来美国好像还没有怕过什么科技发明,但是现在他们居然怕华为的5G。而且这个也不是中国和华为的发明,从1G到4G,都是欧洲美国日本在领先,很长时间中国都是空白,现在5G,只不过是中国企业后来居上的一个发展态势,就把一个称雄世界半个多世纪的大帝国吓成这样。


美国过去一年已开始一场秘密的、带有威胁性的全球运动,以阻止华为与其他中国公司参与到互联网控制系统的改造中来。


为什么特总统要怕你们的5G呢?再看《纽约时报》的介绍:这是第一个为传感器、机器人、自动驾驶汽车和其他设备提供服务的网络,这些设备将不间断地相互提供海量数据,让工厂、建筑工地乃至整个城市更少在时时刻刻的人工干预下运行。

报道称:在对现任和前任美国高级政府官员、情报人员和电信高管的采访中,可以明确的是,5G的潜力在白宫里创造了一种零和计算。美国政府坚信,这场“军备竞赛”只有一个赢家,成王败寇。



换句话说,美国把5G看成生死攸关、成败在此一举的事情了。

两年前,任正非先生说过:从科技的角度来看,未来二、三十年人类社会将演变成一个智能社会,其深度和广度我们还想象不到。


看来,美国人先想到了这个“想象不到”,并且急速地行动起来。


当今世界,美国就是人类丛林中的老虎,它要遍地乱窜,可想而知,世界必将鸡飞狗跳。


由此,我们基本上就可以判断出特总统政府下一步将会对世界对中国做出那些举动。直接说吧,就中国而言,它在和中国结束贸易战休兵之后,必将是科技战。集中力量围剿中国企业和科技发展,这才是他最后的着力点。所以,特总统千方百计也会跟中国达成贸易协议,否则他就会被贸易问题拖住。



这是我的一个观点,跟所谓的主流不一样,我认为是特总统想要达成贸易休兵。我们没什么可着急的,相反,我主张慢慢来,一点一点地抻特总统。因为他时间无多,新一届总统竞选马上开始,反对党不仅想夺他的宝座,还想把他送进监狱。特总统非常非常需要经济的新成绩单。这个成绩单在中国手里。


第二个就是,他轻易发起的贸易战现在骑虎难下,如果真拖成持久战,那他根本就没有精力折腾中国的科技发展了。


看透这一点,不被他的节奏带着走,就是当下我们应该有的心态。所以,我到处说,慌什么?怕什么?没什么啊!这是特总统时代中美关系演进的大趋势。



至于美国军舰来中国领海,那只不过是配合美国经济斗争的辅助性军事和政治形式而已。我一直主张中国军舰zhuang沉它。其实撞了就撞了,最多就是外交吵一顿,不会恶化到什么程度的。前些年zhuang了飞机也不过那样。大趋势之下这是小事件。


我多说几句大趋势。这个大趋势比中美关系大趋势大得多。它是世界和历史的走向。美国为什么折腾华为,原因可以从这里找到。

                                                                                                       

从世界现代史看:
技术和工业革命是当代大国崛起的根本原因


从某种意义上说,美国人对5G的敏感已经使特总统政府对5G是新军备竞赛的定性有点靠谱,并不完全是危言耸听故弄玄虚:因为一种核心技术的确可以引发技术革命,而技术革命又必然会引起军事革命,进而引起世界政治格局的重塑。



西方就是这么崛起的:技术与工业革命支撑下的军事革命,造就了可以利用和占有世界资源的全面优势。18世纪:英国凭借蒸汽机技术开启第一次工业革命,开创了称霸世界的帝业。它那么小的一个岛国,地小人少,凭什么控制世界?就是靠主导性技术带来的国家实力。


它的一个经济学家这样描述鼎盛时期的大英帝国:


英国经济学家杰文斯说:“北美和俄罗斯平原是我们的玉米地;芝加哥和敖德萨是我们的粮仓;加拿大和波罗的海是我们的林场;澳大利亚和西亚是我们的牧羊地,阿根廷和北美的西部草原有我们的牛群;秘鲁运来它的白银,南非和澳大利亚的黄金流到伦敦;印度人和中国人为我们种植茶叶,而我们的咖啡、甘蔗和香料种植园遍及西印度群岛;西班牙和法国就是我们的葡萄园,地中海是我们的果园……我们洋洋得意、充满信心,极为愉快地注视着帝国的威风……”


大英帝国的领地比本土面积大100余倍。


19世纪上半期,发电机技术在法、德发明出来。但是,电力革命却主要发生在美国。美国在1850至1899年间的各种技术发明达七十多万项,其中很多是电力方面的“第一”:第一部电报机、电话机,第一座发电厂,第一个无线广播电台,第一次横渡大西洋的汽船航行。


到了20世纪初,美国还是处在不停地创造“第一”的状态:第一架有动力的飞机,第一次直接横越太平洋飞行,第一架超音速飞机。看看美国今天的航空母舰集群和民航、军航产业,就知道美国在内燃机产业方面的优势。


1946年美国发明第一台电子管计算机,世界进入第三次技术革命时期。然后是第一条越洋海底通信光缆,第一个计算机互联网,第一颗国际通信卫星、第一个全球卫星定位系统,第一个实现人类登月,第一次成功发射航天飞机,第一个破译遗传密码,第一开启生命工程等等。



二战开始前,斯大林说:中国没有军事工业,现在只要谁高兴,谁就可以蹂躏她。


军事工业是最高科技集中的地方。没有军事工业,实际上就意味着中国没有什么现代科技。从明、清、民国,中国就是没有没有现代科技。这直接导致了中国近代史的面貌,是以被世界凌辱的角色出现的。


20世纪诺贝尔科学奖466项颁奖中,美国就占了201项。靠着19世纪电力革命和20世纪内燃机革命、计算机革命中的领先,美国奠定了当今世界大国的地位。



也许我们现在应该有点现实感了:1991年美国发动海湾战争,这是被我们中国军队称之为信息化革命的一场战争。我们军队最新的现代化进程就是从这里开始的。


然后呢,我们看到大哥大,电脑。1994年,互联网接入中国,于是网络开始进入我们的生活,网聊,电子商务,自媒体,大潮汹涌。


站在1981年无法想象1991年,站在1991年无法想象2001年。十年的世界科技变化就让你不敢认。现在,谁敢想象二三十年后的人工智能时代?而5G就是进入人工智能时代的大门。

美国人没有想到的是,突然一个国家挤到他的前面去了。一百多年来美国已经习惯了总是自己站在别人前面。

于是,它不淡定了。其实这个世界,除了中国以外,都不淡定。美国最慌乱,其次是欧洲,是美国的那些团伙国家。他们还在到处拉帮结伙围堵华为,但中国的第一张5G卡已经发放出去了,据说是一个靠房地产起家的人拿到的。


美国为什么不淡定?因为它知道,在技术方面落后,接下来必然是在工业领域和军事领域落后。这是世界历史告诉它的。

美国人自独立以后就没有打过武器装备落后的仗。如果他突然发现自己的技术装备不如别的国家了,美国军队真不知道是啥情况。自一百年前参加第一次世界大战,美国军队就只会打豪华的技术和工业战争。换言之,他只会在自己处于绝对武器装备的优势下才有信心打下去。



第二次世界大战从技术角度看就是内燃机和电气化战争。中国军队为什么没有像苏军消灭德军那样成百万地集中杀灭,就是因为贸易机械化的大规模装备。即使是作为正面战场的国民党政府军,也只不过买了西方的一点坦克、飞机和小军舰,和日本军庞大的数量和先进的质量相比差远了。


整个十四年抗战,中国军队只有一架飞机飞到日本撒传单,还是用的美国制造的飞机。美国1945年就把原子弹扔到日本,而中国到1964年才把原子弹搞出来,还是新中国的人。



再后来是核武器革命,洲际导弹,太空战场开辟。发生于美苏,中国以举国之力,很快赶上了。那是一个被核讹诈的时代,中国以两弹一星打破了。两弹一星现在成为了中国的一种精神。


20世纪末,世界军事领域发生了信息化革命。这是美国率先引领的,因为它的电子和信息化技术之前已经在科技和工业领域发生了革命。海湾战争把这场革命展现在世界面前了,精确制导武器,远程空中打击等等。二战和朝鲜战争那样的机械化大兵团战争样式,成为历史了。


当下正在发生着的,是网络化多形态混合战争,从技术的角度看,就是无人化和智能化。美国内部称之为“第三次抵消”。


丧失技术、工业和军事革命机遇的中国,三百年中三次改朝换代。先是丧失火器军事革命机遇,明朝衰亡;后是丧失蒸汽机半机械化革命机遇,清朝衰亡;接着是丧失内燃机和电气机械化时代立体化军事革命,民国衰亡。这成本够惨重吧!


新中国追上核武器革命,并继续追赶信息化革命和网络化时代军事革命。历史欠账造成今天中国落后于美欧的现实地位。


由于未能把握住世界历史发展大势,中国自农业时代领先世界近两千年的地位丧失殆尽,损失了全部的财富积累,并几乎亡国灭种。


华为作为一个企业,行进的征途正是现代大国的强国之路!美国围堵华为得到了部分西方国家的支持。除了历史文化上的亲近关系之外,他们同时感到了一种历史性的恐惧。


华为之路,就是中国企业的正确之路。如果中国的企业都走上华为之路,那中国的强大就是必然的,指日可待的。任正非先生说,有人做豆芽,有人磨豆腐,合起来就是伟大祖国!这朴素的比喻里,包含着伟大的真理!


华为matex 5G


我十几年来一直竭力呼吁的,就是希望中国企业走高技术之路,希望国家的发展走技术兴国、实力兴国的道路。2013年我在国家发改委讲座就说这个问题,我特别说中国有某个做电脑的企业,总是用外国的零备件组装,在中国卖。它那个牌子除了两个汉字是中国的,其他什么东西都是外国的。


没有自主知识产权没有核心技术,你就是一具僵尸,是帮助外国人开拓中国市场的买办企业。说实话,我鄙视这样的所谓中国企业。你是中国企业吗?没有历史使命感,不了解世界政治本质,也不懂世纪技术发展史。看起来有模有样的,其实啥都不是。美国不打它,一是因为某种程度上它是和人家的利益绑定的,第二,它也没啥前途啊,美国打它干啥。我不说这个企业的名字了,你懂的。



很显然,美国看华为不是把你们仅仅当一个企业来看,而是把你们当中国了。所以,它有一种恐惧,深刻的、长远的恐惧。

因此,美国和欧洲对华为的围堵,一定是长期的,无所不用其极的歇斯底里性的。


而我最担心的,是中国只有一个华为。这不行。当年中国工农红军只有一支,被国民党军阀围追堵截,那个惨烈啊。后来人民解放军四大野战军,就把先发起进攻的国民党部队,先搞得晕头转向,后打得落花流水。一会我会讲到我的建议。


   从中兴事件到华为事件的质变:
中国必须打赢世纪性科技抗战


2018年4月,特总统政府“谋Sha”中兴。我说:美国拿中兴开刀是对中国进行战略试探。如同日本制造“九一八”事件之前先在柳条湖炸死张作霖一样。

所以,我强烈建议ZX公司从中国企业、中国国家和中华民族的高度出发,坚决顶住美国的讹诈。并给他们提了六条建议。我学了几十年的毛泽东战略思想,搞了半辈子的战略研究,对付特总统政府,还不算外行。



我说,你们要听我的建议,一是绝不交罚款,二是绝不接受美国派人监视,三是转战本土和其他地区,四是成立全球信息产业联盟,发展新一代芯片和信息技术,打破美国垄断;五是合法开展和伊朗的业务,六是集中力量打击特总统家族企业!是中国人就要有这个血性,有仇必报!


我最后说,你们听我的话,前途一片光明,如果不然,那将万劫不复。


可惜!ZX不争气。不听我的建议。它自己死不足惜,问题是我那句话一言成谶,华为果然被特总统围住了。而且特总统政府倾巢出动,几乎在动员全世界围剿华为。



今天,我要说:华为必须挺住!


今日中国人,要拿出当年保卫华北的决心保卫华为!这已经不是一个国家对一个企业的科技决战,而是黑暗与光明,邪恶与正义的命运决战!


大家看过电影《至暗时刻》吧。我非常欣赏丘吉尔在地铁上问道民众“怎么办”,而几乎所有的民众都表示:“跟法西斯打!”所以,丘吉尔在议会慷慨陈词要和纳粹战斗到底!



从特总统政府宰杀中兴、围剿华为、对华展开贸易战,期间,美国还对中国领海进行数次挑衅式入侵,美国政客操弄台湾问题,同时退出一系列国际协议,宣布成立太空军,特总统和美政府高官更直接赤裸裸地威胁军事干涉委内瑞拉…….


综合现实的、历史的、政治的、经济的、军事的、一般规律,我希望我的同胞们,不要再对特总统及其政府抱有不切实际的幻想。


ZX不听我的劝告轻易跪下,未来已没有未来了,不去说它。今天我要竭尽洪荒之力,给华为提几条建议:


一是实施战略转移。如果美国一意孤行全面禁止华为参与美国电信业务的话,建议华为从美国本土撤出,但应保持与美国一些友好单位的合作关系。这样,就为对美本土经济意义上的战略游击战创造了条件。现在的战略转移是为未来的王者归来保存实力。这是毛泽东灵活机动战略战术的体现,在敌强我弱的情况下不争一城一地之得失;


二是在一带一路的沿线,进行5G普及和推广的运动战。这是跟随国家大战略前进,不仅没有大的战略阻力,还会获得巨大的战略助力。这些国家先普及了5G,就在世界上造就了“农村包围城市”的态势,那美国和欧洲、加拿大和澳大利亚、新西兰等五眼联盟就会被孤立、包围,成为技术孤岛,就会在新一波技术革命中落后;


三是固守中国本土的阵地战。美国率领他的仆从军对华为的围剿,华为实施战略转移,正好为华为回撤国内,创造了一个顺势而为的态势。中国率先成为世界第一个5G国家,而且是国产技术,这意义就太大了。中国这个市场必须是打阵地战,坚决守住。不仅特别大,足够华为发展100年,关键是可靠!中国人民都是华为的后盾。



站在这里,就永远立于不败之地!回归国内之后,华为的业务可以全面开花,以5G技术为核心,让中国全面智能化,在技术形态上实现一个飞跃,让特总统更害怕!特总统能坚持多长时间?他就是连任,也不过六年时间。六年以后,华为6G都出来了。


同时,建议华为成立战略研究院,设立大型智库,搞一个像抗日军政大学那样的高端学校,培训源源不断的战略人才。国家竞争无休无止,关键在人才。不管是华为还是中国,一个任正非是不够的。


让我欣慰的是,华为公司已经立下“决不当亡国奴”的誓言。

我也希望国人在看待华为这个事件的时候,有一点历史感——责任感就蕴藏在其中:


19世纪,中国遭受以英国为首的欧洲蹂躏与掠夺,遭受日本羞辱与侵略;


20世纪,中国遭受日本全面入侵,遭受美国率领联合国军的威胁和美苏的核讹诈;


21世纪初,中国遭受美国率领下的西方集体帝国主义的经济压迫,军事包围和政治渗透。



2018年中兴和华为事件,是唤醒国家和民族奋起自强的警钟!新时代的中国,再也不能继续受制于人了。


长达近二百年的民族之痛,提醒、激励着21世纪的中国人,必须不惜代价抢占新技术革命制高点,在思维上打破疆界,在实力上全面发展,在道义上赢得人心,竞逐富强争衡天下,龙骧虎步,雄峙鼎立。


特总统让美国再次伟大,那是他的事情,我们不管,甚至乐观其成。我们的任务是让中国再次复兴。我们不许任何国家阻断我们的进程。


当年新中国用抗美援朝战争,用两弹一星表明了这一态度,今天,让我们用5G及其代表的中国科技雄心,用十四亿人的同仇敌忾,告诉特总统也告诉世界:中国的复兴是必须的,必然的,是任何力量也阻断不了的!


再次祝福华为,祝福中华!谢谢大家!



文琳编辑  点击下面链接可查阅


文琳资讯,每日提供最新信息。欢迎关注【文琳资讯】

今日导读:点击下面链接可查阅

  1. 中国为什么要制裁这些NGO?看看这个你就明白了

  2. 又一个重大经济规划出炉了!看看红利有你家的吗?

  3. 药价大降60%!解决看病贵,国家下了一盘大棋

  4. 这个影响房价的关键指标,半数城市在下跌!谁在动摇房价根基?

  5. 下半年,全国85%的大城市房租下跌的背后..

  6. 伦敦又发生恐怖袭击,暴露出英国治国的五点软肋!


为便于研究人员查找相关行业研究报告,特将2018年各期文章汇总。欢迎点击下面红色字体查阅!


文琳行业研究 2018—2019文章汇总

文琳编辑

今日导读:点击下面链接可查阅

公众号 :文琳行业研究

  1. 中国“耳朵经济”调查报告

  2. 独家观察||悄然崛起的“耳朵经济”

  3. 互联网时代的电影发展研究报告

  4. 高通:2019全球音频消费者调研报告

  5. 2019年中国音频直播市场专题分析

  6. 2019年年中音乐报告

  7. 2019年第三季度中国移动阅读市场季度盘点

  8. 2019年中国在线阅读行业营销报告

文琳行研报告,为各机构提供专业的信息、数据、研究和咨询服务。欢迎关注【文琳行业研究】


《文琳阅读》每晚经典,欢迎关注!

文琳编辑

今日导读:点击下面链接可查阅

公众号 :文琳阅读

  1. 人太闲,是一场灾难

  2. 90后辣妈留学10年:我如何从高考失利到成为全美最顶尖医院医生

  3. 揭秘“小三劝退师”:每年800个成功案例的背后,是层层设计的圈套

  4. BBC纪录片丨《美国商业大亨传奇》,第五集:新的对手

  5. 为啥饮料瓶大都是圆的,牛奶盒却是方的?

  6. 音乐欣赏:失传已久的首养生音乐--茶室音乐


继续滑动看下一个
向上滑动看下一个

您可能也对以下帖子感兴趣

文章有问题?点此查看未经处理的缓存